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The race between incumbent Rep. Mike Lawler, a 38-year-old Republican, and Democrat Mondaire Jones, age 37, has been labeled a "race to watch" by Politico in a new report from Sunday, Oct. 27.
The 17th District consists of all of Rockland and Putnam counties, most of Northern Westchester, and portions of southern Dutchess County.
According to the outlet, the seat is one of a handful carried by President Joe Biden in the 2020 election where a Republican congressional candidate won. Because of this, it could sway whether or not Democrats secure a majority in the House, or if Republicans keep their current advantage.
The race was an upset in 2020, as Lawler "stunned the political world" when he defeated then-incumbent Democratic Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney by just under 2,000 votes, Politico reported. Maloney had been Chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee at the time.
The outlet said Lawler's win was a "symbolic blow" to Democrats at the time. To repeat it, Lawler will have to win voters over by indicating he is willing to work with Democrats and be bipartisan, as the district has more than 75,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans, Politico reported.
When it comes to fundraising, Jones's campaign has raised more money than Lawler's in Q3 of 2024, with the Democrat raising $2.9 million to the $1.6 million raised by the incumbent. Additionally, Democrats have spent $10.3 million on advertisement spending, while Republicans have spent $8 million, Politico reported.
According to a poll from Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill from early October, Lawler has a slight lead, with 45 percent of those polled indicating support for Lawler and 44 percent indicating support for Jones.
Meanwhile, Working Family Party candidate Anthony Frascone earned the support of 3 percent of those polled.
According to Politico, votes for Frascone could hurt Jones if the election is close, as Frascone beat him in the primary and will appear on the ballot per New York's system where major candidates can run in major and minor party primaries.
If Jones does succeed in winning the seat, he will be returning to Congress after representing much of the 17th District in Congress from 2021 to 2023. After New York's 2020 redistricting, he moved to Brooklyn and ran for re-election in the 10th Congressional District; however, he lost the Democratic primary to current incumbent Dan Goldman.
He has since moved to Sleepy Hollow to run again for the 17th District seat.
Meanwhile, before his term in Congress, Lawler was a member of the New York State Assembly from 2021 to 2022, representing the 97th district in Rockland County. He also previously worked in the Westchester County Executive's Office as an advisor to Rob Astorino and executive director of the New York State Republican Party, and was once deputy town supervisor in Orangetown.
Lawler's past has also been the subject of a scandal: The New York Times reported that he donned blackface while dressing up as Michael Jackson for Halloween while he was a sophomore at the now Manhattan University in 2006.
During a televised debate held by CBS on Wednesday, Oct. 23, Lawler addressed the report:
"I understand why people are offended and I apologize for that, and obviously today that's not something I would do," Lawler said, adding, "But Van Jones, one of his own supporters, went on CNN that night and said, this is not blackface.
"This is not historical minstrel shows meant to degrade Black Americans, and it's a distraction from the real issues impacting Black Americans – from the affordability crisis to public safety to the migrant crisis and the impact that has on our economy and on our workforce," CBS News reported.
Overall, many election forecasters either see the race as a toss-up or have given Lawler a slight advantage, including the Cook Political Report, which rated the race as "Lean Republican" on Friday, Oct. 25, according to Politico.
Check back to Daily Voice after Election Day to see the results of the race.
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